China’s renminbi and India’s rupee are seen as the biggest casualties among Asian currencies in the event the UK votes to leave the EU, according to an estimate from Malaysia’s Maybank.
据马来西亚的马来亚银行估计，如果英国投票选择退出欧盟，中国的人民币和印度的卢比将跻身于亚洲国家货币中的最大受害者之列。
The Japanese yen is widely expected to be the biggest gainer among Asian currencies in the event of a Brexit, with Maybank forecasting a potential 11.7 per cent leap in the largest haven currency. At its current level of ￥104.73, such a move would push the yen towards the ￥94 mark against the dollar.
外界广泛预计，如果英国退欧，日元将出现亚洲货币中最大的涨势。马来亚银行预测，这种最大的避险货币可能升值11.7%。鉴于日元当前的汇率为1美元兑104.73日元，这一升幅将把日元的汇率推高至1美元兑94日元。
The renminbi and rupee, meanwhile, could lose up to 5.2 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively. A decision to leave would probably sharpen pressure on China’s central bank, which last month set the renminbi at a five-year low on the back of a rising dollar.
与此同时，人民币和卢比的汇率可能分别下跌5.2%和5.7%。英国选择退欧很可能加大中国央行承受的压力，上月，在美元汇率上升的情况下，中国央行设定的人民币中间价曾跌至5年低位。
South Korea’s won, the Philippines’ peso and the Malaysian ringgit are also set to slide, the Maybank analysts said: “These economies are most susceptible to risk appetite and risk-off could see flight to safety away from assets of these economies to higher quality assets.’’ they said.
如果英国退欧，韩国的韩元，菲律宾的比索和马来西亚的林吉特也将贬值，马来亚银行的分析师们表示：“这些经济体最容易受到风险偏好和风险规避的影响，可能出现资本从这些经济体的资产逃向安全资产，投入质量更高的资产上，”他们表示。
The Singapore dollar and Indonesia rupiah will be least shaken on a Leave vote, Maybank said as “the former [is] seen as a safer haven among ASEAN currencies, while the latter has so far been buffered by portfolio and direct investment flows as sentiment towards Indonesia has improved with the reformist policies of President [Joko Widodo]’’.
如果英国退欧，受到影响最小的将是新加坡元和印尼盾，马来亚银行表示，“前者被视为东盟各国货币中较为安全的避险资产，后者迄今因为投资组合和直接投资流动而得到缓冲，因为印尼总统的改革政策提升了市场对印尼的信心。”
Although sterling has been most sensitive to changes in opinion polls, a decision to leave is unlikely to trigger the kind of market fallout seen in September 1992, when the pound was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
尽管英镑对民调结果的变化最为敏感，但德意志银行的分析师认为，英国退欧的决定不太可能引发1992年9月英镑脱离欧洲汇率机制时人们看到的那种市场冲击波。
